Indian offshore wind: ambitions, opportunities and challenges

India, with its goal of installing 175 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2022, including 60 GW of wind, is a market which is too big to ignore.

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Oct 04, 2017
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Author(s): Charles Yates and Mark Leybourne

Abstract

Wharton Business School recently ranked India as the best country in the world to invest in. India is progressing with an offshore wind regime designed to attract wide interest from developers and the supply chain. In 2015 India adopted an offshore wind policy and two pilot projects are being developed: one in Gujarat and another in Tamil Nadu. The port and power transmission infrastructure in Gujarat is currently far more capable and suited to support offshore wind than for Tamil Nadu; however, the annual average wind speeds are lower in Gujarat and could be close to the limits of economic viability. The tender for the first projects could occur during 2018 and be followed by the developer-led design, procurement and build out of projects. With support from the EU and the British Government, the offshore wind resource is being surveyed, environmental assessments have started, and a policy framework is being crafted to guide and support the development of a pipeline of projects and a local supply chain. In Indian waters with depths of 0–50 m, >800 GW of theoretical wind energy potential exists. A realistic potential, considering technical, environmental and economic viability, will likely offer an extractable resource of many tens of GW.

Introduction

In 2015 India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, set an ambitious target of installing 175 GW (100 GW of solar; 60 GW of wind, 10 GW of biomass and 5 GW of small hydro) [1] of new renewable energy capacity by 2022 which has attracted attention worldwide. This has been reinforced by India ratifying the Paris Climate Change Agreement and making a commitment, among other things, that by 2030 40% of its electricity generating capacity will be non-fossil fuel based increasing from 30% at present (including hydro and nuclear) [2]. Both targets require a massive jump from the circa 6.8 GW of solar and 27 GW of wind installed to date.

The Indian government is keen to encourage foreign investment, technology and expertise and has made several significant policy changes to increase India’s attraction to investors. Foreign investors are starting to appreciate these changes and India was ranked as the best country in the world to invest in by U.S. News, BAV and Wharton Business School. The ranking is built on an evaluation of 60 countries against 24 criteria based upon a survey of >16,000 global citizens [3].

Fig 1 shows forecasts of Indian renewable generation capacity from the Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Both show India achieving a revolution with renewable generation capacity growing at an average of 26% p.a. from 2016 to 2025. The government aims to catch up with growing demand for power (there are around 300 million Indians without access to mains electricity and GDP is growing at 7.5% pa) [4], reduce the heavy dependence on coal-fired generation, and cut carbon emissions and pollution. Around 70% of India’s electricity is generated from fossil fuels [5], with the majority from coal. India has the world’s fourth largest coal reserves and the pressure to use that source remains significant [5].

Fig 1: Renewable generation capacity in India [6] (Source: CmY Consultants based on [4,5])

India has not yet set a target for offshore wind but in 2015 adopted a national offshore wind policy and is investigating two projects: one in Gujarat and another in Tamil Nadu [1]. With support from the EU and the British Governments, the Indian Government is surveying the offshore wind resource, starting environmental assessments in the most favourable locations, and developing a policy framework to guide and support projects and a local supply chain.

The growth in renewable generation is based, to a significant extent, on foreign investment 7]: India is a major destination for global investment in renewables and attracted US$14bn of investment in renewables between 2014 and 2016. The accounting firm EY ranks India as the third most attractive market in the world for renewable investment [8].

A further positive for renewables in India is that costs have fallen to near grid parity for solar PV – it is almost as cheap as generating power from fossil fuels [9] with project returns in the range of 10–16%. These are positives for a country that wants to rapidly increase its energy supply, while weaning itself off coal and petroleum products.

India’s offshore wind resource

India has a coastline longer than 7500 km and some coastal waters offer depths suited to fixed offshore wind turbine foundations and attractive wind energy resources which reach up to an annual average of 10 m/s. India’s offshore winds are an unexploited, indigenous energy resource that could complement other forms of generation in the future energy mix.

Initial offshore wind feasibility assessments were undertaken in 2009 and 2010 by C-WET [10] (Centre for Wind Energy Technology, now NIWE – National Institute for Wind Energy) and Risø DTU [11]. Subsequently, wind resource modelling and assessment projects were carried out by local and international organisations [12–16] which have suggested a range of offshore wind energy theoretical potentials and, in some cases, have considered constraints and technical feasibility though not estimated realistic potentials. NCSCM’s study [17] estimated that in Indian waters with depths of 0–50 m, >800 GW of theoretical, wind energy potential exists. Refining this estimate to a realistic potential, considering technical, environmental and economic viability, will likely offer an extractable resource of many tens of GW. Offshore wind could, therefore, provide a meaningful contribution to India’s energy mix and a pipeline of project opportunities to support an industry. Future floating wind technologies could further increase India’s extractable resource potential by opening up sites deeper than the 40–50 m limit of fixed foundations. The southern waters of Tamil Nadu, for example, offer wind speeds >9 m/s but as water depth increases rapidly from the shore large areas of this resource can only be exploited by floating turbines.

All assessments of India’s offshore wind resource have been derived from satellite data and mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. To date, none of the offshore wind resource assessment studies have included hub height validation data from in-situ measurements.

In mid-2013, NIWE erected a 100 m high coastal met mast at Dhanuskodi, Rameshwaram; a long spit of sand streching out towards Sri Lanka from Tamil Nadu in Southern India – see Fig 2. Measurements have shown an annual average wind speed of at least 8 m/s, with some months exceeding a monthly average of 10 m/s, as can be seen in the data from the first 7 months of measurement presented in Fig 3.

Fig 2: A 100 m tall coastal met mast has been measuring wind conditions at Dhanuskodi since late 2013 (Source: NIWE)

Fig 3: Variation of daily mean wind speed at 100 m height between October 2013 and May 2014 at the Dhanuskodi met mast (Source: NIWE)

The exploitation of India’s offshore wind resources is currently focusing on the states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, where the most attractive wind speeds are found. Fig 4 highlights the concentration of offshore wind energy in these two states and shows the number of days per year that the average 80 m height wind speed exceeds 6 m/s. This figure, taken from the resource analysis by INCOIS [16], uses 10 years of satellite data coupled with 10 m height measurements from a series of offshore buoys around India’s coast.

Fig 4: Indian offshore wind conditions showing the number of days per year the mean wind speed exceeds 6 m/s (Source: INCOIS – [16])

India’s offshore winds vary with the season and are dependent on the monsoon. Highest offshore wind speeds occur during the summer from May to August, with maximum average wind speeds >10 m/s. Speeds are lower either side of the summer period and are at their lowest in March and November, when average wind speeds typically do not exceed 7 m/s. Fig 5 shows the variation of mean monthly wind speeds in Indian waters at a height of 50 m.

Fig 5: Monthly variation in average 50 m offshore wind speeds (Source: NCSCM – [17])

Offshore wind pre-feasibility studies for the states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have been undertaken by the European Union funded project, FOWIND. This project has used WRF models to assess the offshore wind conditions in both states and incorporated technical and environmental constraints to suggest zones for development that have the best potential. The project has proposed eight zones in each state and inter-ministry consultations are underway to obtain the stage I clearances for these areas. Preparation efforts will be centred on ‘Zone A’ in each state as these are judged to be the most attractive regions, predicted to offer the lowest cost of energy. The maps in Fig 6 show the eight zones in each state as proposed by the FOWIND project.

Fig 6: Offshore wind development zones in the waters of Gujarat (left) and Tamil Nadu (right) proposed by the FOWIND project. Green offers the most attractive conditions, whereas red is least favourable (Source: FOWIND – [15])

Development roadmap

The simplified Gantt chart in Fig 7 provides an overview of the key activities that will precede the delivery of India’s first project. Preparatory activities are currently being undertaken by stakeholders including the British High Commission, NIWE, MNRE, FOWIND and FOWPI. Key elements of this preparatory work are the site surveys and in-situ measurements; the most important of which being the long-term wind measurements and metocean data. Lighter colours and dashed arrows in Fig 7 signify periods of time into which activities could extend: Marine spatial planning is an ongoing activity that should continue to be refined and improved as site data are collected and stakeholders are consulted on the plan. Although the FOWIND project is responsible for LIDAR measurements for a limited time, the wind resource measurement campaign should continue for as long as possible. Work on the onshore grid connection and substation could commence early depending on the identified point of connection.

Fig 7: Gantt chart shows the possible timing and pathway for the delivery of India’s first offshore wind project

Depending on the progress of the preparatory work and the appetite of the future industry, the bidding process for the first projects could occur during 2018 and be followed by the developer-led design, procurement and build out of a project. An alternative scenario is that an initial, small scale project is developed and subsidised by the Government of India. This would provide a demonstration of the technology and provide valuable learning on which a subsequent programme of commercial projects could be developed.

The timeline in Fig 8 shows how the offshore wind industry could develop in India over the coming decades and includes possible milestones and targets. Development in the sector may commence with an initial ‘pilot’ project, followed by future commercial developments. If development of a project commences within the next few years, it could be commissioned early in the coming decade.

Fig 8: Example of a timeline depicts how India’s offshore wind industry may evolve over the coming decades

If the policy and support conditions are favourable, the development of subsequent commercial projects is likely to start shortly afterwards and the projects will begin to come online later in the 2020s. The initial projects will likely be the ‘low hanging fruit’; the simplest to develop while being economically viable. As has been the case with many other countries’ initial projects, such as the UK’s Round 1 projects [18] and China’s inter-tidal projects, these will tend to be close to shore, in regions of good wind resource and in shallow water. This will lower development costs, reduce risk and allow project developers and the supply chain to gain experience and learn lessons.

As the industry becomes more experienced, developers can consider more complex projects, larger in scale, further offshore and in deeper water. The technical challenges, and hence costs, of such projects are greater than for nearshore projects; however, the attraction of a greater wind resource helps to overcome these obstacles as does unit cost reductions through economies of scale.

Looking further into the future, floating wind turbines could begin to enter deeper water sites such as Southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It is predicted that floating devices may offer significant cost reductions as the technology matures and commercialises, in comparison to fixed foundation turbines. India’s utilisation of floating turbines will depend on how the technology develops and the applicability of floating technologies to sites in India.

Developing policy to deliver projects

India is developing its offshore wind policy to deliver offshore windfarms which are large, complex, technologically advanced and have long-lead times. The private sector will invest in projects if they are confident that the policy will be sustained over several electoral cycles; this requires a political consensus in favour of offshore wind. Political support can be built on a programme of projects which are affordable (e.g. the projects do not require excessive subsidies); generate local benefits including jobs and exports, and contribution to a secure and diversified energy supply system. The ‘Made in India’ programme is increasing the number of renewable energy jobs in India and is building political support for offshore wind.

India seeks foreign investment in offshore wind to provide access to the best technology, proven implementation capability and low cost capital. Global project developers are looking for sustained policy support, a programme of projects large enough to justify a commitment to India and appropriate environmental requirements. Low cost, long-term debt from foreign banks can make a major contribution to reducing the cost of offshore wind: a technology with high up-front capital expenditure, and hence financing costs, but no fuel costs.

Investors also take comfort from a transparent and fair mechanism for allocating projects and revenue support. Open international tenders are the global standard for allocating these major projects which can bring significant private profits and risks, but may also require material public subsidy. The Indian Government could consider inflation linked tariffs to cover increasing O&M costs in the long term and provide a degree of Rupee depreciation protection for investors. Effective tender processes are designed, among other things, to ensure that the winner has the technical and financial capability and experience to successfully develop the project at a cost which is affordable. Experience in Europe and in the USA shows that the optimal tender process engenders strong competition, does not impose excessive bidding costs; is relatively quick; helps bidders to fully understand the risk/return of the project and allows the Government to select the best developer to deliver the project to cost and time.

Affordable attractive tariffs

A key test of policy is that it clearly sets out a revenue stream and a tender system which results in a tariff which is affordable for consumers and the Government, and is also attractive to bidders. This requires simultaneously:

  • The tariff paid by the state government owned electricity distribution company (Discom) is similar to the cost of other forms of generation such as coal-fired power station. This reduces the cost of offshore wind electricity to consumers.
  • Further revenue is provided, in addition to that from power sales, to fully cover project costs. This additional revenue is particularly important for the first pilot projects which are expected to have high costs as they will be relatively small and will not benefit from economies of scale, experience benefits and a well-established local supply chain which will drive down costs. This additional revenue is expected to take the form of viability gap funding to top up total project revenue to the level bid by the winning tenderer.

An approach to help to minimise the viability gap funding is to ‘ socialise’ the cost of the electrical transmission system, e.g. the cost of the transmission link from the offshore project to the onshore power grid. This is often a significant cost, typically around a fifth of the project costs, and if this cost is borne by the Discom or a national transmission company like Power Grid Corporation of India, rather than the developer, the tariff required to cover the project costs is reduced. In this case, the cost of the offshore transmission link, along with onshore transmission costs, is spread by the Discom over all electricity consumers.

Over time, the cost of electricity from offshore wind projects will be driven down by

  • Larger projects which enjoy economies of scale
  • The increasing capability of the local supply chain which cuts costs by replacing imports with more cost effective local goods and services
  • Technological innovation and learning by doing continue to drive down costs

Fig 9 illustrates the reductions in the cost of energy from offshore wind projects which have already been achieved largely due to bigger, more economic turbines and improved installation methods which have been developed as experience is built up. Based on data and analysis from the IEA and IRENA [19,20], the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) in US$/MWh from offshore wind projects in 2022 is expected to be 46% lower than in 2015. A big cost reduction is forecast for 2020 when the European Borssele and Vesterhav projects are expected to start operations. The developers of these projects (DONG and Vattenfall) have committed to LCOEs of US$92 and US$85 per MWh respectively.

Fig 9: The falling LCOE from offshore wind (Source IEA, IRENA, CmY – [19,20]). The vertical bars indicate the range of the LCOE in that year. Actuals to 2015 and forecasts 2016–2050

Supply chain opportunities

As India delivers offshore wind projects, the opportunities for the local supply chain will increase because of the growing capability and competitiveness of the local supply chain, and growth in the size and number of projects. The Government of India has a key role in achieving the potential of the local supply chain by understanding the supply chain’s current capability and readiness to compete, and to explore key barriers to growth. Growing the local supply chain will build skilled local jobs, as well as tax revenue and export opportunities.

Experience in the UK indicates that as local industry gets more experience, the international supply chain will tend to embed itself locally, and the capability and capacity of the local supply chain will develop. Our assessment of key supply chain opportunities for the pilot projects is indicated in Table 1. We distinguish between the realistic opportunities for the local supply chain in the pilot projects and the greater opportunity when the supply chain is more mature and competitive.

Cost component

Project lifetime costs, %

Pilot project opportunity

Mature project opportunity

Local

International

Local

International

O&M minor service

20

medium

medium

high

low

O&M other

12

low

high

medium

medium

other including development

12

low

high

medium

medium

drivetrain

8

low

high

medium

medium

foundations

8

high

medium

high

low

blades

7

medium

high

high

medium

substations

7

high

medium

high

low

O&M major service

7

low

high

medium

high

foundation installation

5

low

high

high

low

tower

4

high

low

high

low

turbine other

4

medium

medium

high

low

subsea cable installation

4

low

high

medium

high

subsea cables

3

low

high

medium

high

Table 1: Offshore wind farm costs and supply chain opportunities in the pilot projects

Conclusions

India has made a committed start on its journey towards an offshore wind industry that has the potential to generate significant amounts of carbon-free, affordable and secure power. Important steps are being taken to fill in the existing, broad policy framework, and planning for the first projects is underway. India’s initial projects will be critical: technological and commercial success coupled with public support will add momentum and confidence to the offshore wind programme. Following the first projects, a sustained programme of larger projects would drive the development of the local supply chain; generating jobs, taxes and exports. It will also see the cost of electricity from offshore wind reducing as technology improves, the local supply chain drives down capital and operational costs, and growing investor confidence pushes down the cost of finance.

The key to a successful offshore wind programme will be the available wind energy resource which, in some areas, could be at the lower end of the scale for economic viability and tends to be highly seasonal. In the future, floating wind technologies could boost the addressable resource by opening up sites deeper than the 40–50 m limit of fixed foundations. The southern waters off Tamil Nadu, for example, offer mean wind speeds >9 m/s but as water depth increases rapidly from the shore large areas of this resource can only be exploited by floating turbines.

Notes

Source: CmY and ITPEnergised analysis.

Acknowledgement

The authors of this article have been supporting the development of India’s offshore wind sector for the past three years with funding from British High Commission funding under the UK FCO Prosperity Programme.

References

  1. ‘Sector Policy’, http://www.makeinindia.com/sector/renewable-energy, accessed November 2016.
  2. ‘India ratifies Paris climate pact at UN’, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55185#.V_1LN4WcHXU, accessed November 2016.
  3. ‘Best countries to invest in’, http://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/invest-in-full-list, accessed November 2016.
  4. ‘Table 1, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/02/, accessed November 2016.
  5. ‘Table 2.4, India Energy Outlook – World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf, accessed November 2016.
  6. Data from http://www.mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/achievements/. and ‘India Energy Outlook Table 2.4, IEA December 2015’, www.worldenergyoutlook.org/india, accessed November 2016.
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  8. Page 9, http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-RECAI-48-October-2016/$FILE/EY-RECAI-48-October-2016.pdf, accessed November 2016.
  9. Large scale solar PV projects are being developed with a tariff of USc7/KWh or less which is similar to the market price of power from thermal generation.
  10. C-WET: ‘Indian wind atlas’ ( C-WET , 2010).
  11. HasagerC.B.BingölF.BadgerM. et al.: ‘Offshore wind potential in south India from synthetic aperture radar. roskilde: Danmarks Tekniske universitet, risø nationallaboratoriet for bæredygtig energi’ ( Denmark. Forskningscenter Risoe. Risoe-R; No. 1780(EN)) 2011.
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  13. World Institute of Sustainable Energy (WISE). ‘Action Plan for Comprehensive Renewable Energy Development in Tamil Nadu’ (2012). http://wisein.org/WISE_Projects/TN_ActionPlan_Web.pdf.
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  15. FOWIND ‘Pre-Feasibility Studies for Offshore Wind Farm Development in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu’ (2015) http://www.fowind.in.
  16. Harikumar R. Sabique L. Balakrishnan Nair T. M. Shenoi S. S. C.: ‘Report on the assessment of wind energy potential along the Indian coast for offshore wind farm advisories’ INCOIS Report No.: INCOIS-MOG&ISG-TR-2011-07 (INCOIS, 2011).
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  19. IEA Wind . ‘Forecasting wind energy costs’ ( IEA, 2016) http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-1005717.pdf, accesed January 2017.
  20. IRENA Renewable power generation costs in 2014 (https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Power_Costs_2014_report.pdf, accessed January 2016) and press reports on Borssele and Vesterhav.
  21. ‘Executive summary of month of November 2015’. Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power, Government of India -http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/executivesummary/2015/exe_summary-11.pdf.
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Case studies

Case study 1: The Gujarat project

The key to a successful offshore wind project in Gujarat will be the available wind energy resource as the predictions indicate that it is at the lower end of the scale for economic viability. An accurate assessment of this cannot be made until in situ, long-term measurements have been made. The FOWIND project has procured an LIDAR for a 2-year offshore wind measurement campaign in Gujarat. A fixed platform for the LIDAR is being funded by MNRE, and the LIDAR and platform are due to be installed in the northern extreme of Gujarat’s Zone A in late 2016/early 2017. While the offshore wind measurements are being collected over the following 24 months, NIWE will continue to gather and collate existing information on the chosen offshore blocks. The offshore hydrocarbons industry has a wealth of oceanographic data and this, coupled with environmental data from other ministries and institutes, will help to increase the knowledge of the chosen areas, and so reduce the risk to the eventual developers. FOWIND has focused on the waters in the Gulf of Khambat in Southern Gujarat which offer attractive sites with shallow waters, good grid connectivity and many ports close by. The bathymetry – variation of depth – for the Khambat region is shown in Fig 10. The Indian wind turbine supplier and project developer, Suzlon, is focusing on the waters of Northern Gujarat and is currently pursuing the development of its first project, close to Jakhau. Suzlon has long-standing experience in developing and operating a large capacity of wind, close to the shore and intends to apply its experience in that region to its first venture offshore.

Fig 10: The bathymetry of Gujarat’s waters in the Gulf of Khambat (Source: NIOT)

A second EU funded project, FOWPI (First Offshore Wind Project in India), is leading the site investigations and initial design work for India’s first project. FOWPI commenced in mid-2016 and is focusing on a site close to the FOWIND LIDAR.

The boundaries of Zone A are depicted in Fig 11 along with the locations of the LIDAR and closest, suitable port for construction activities. To provide a sense of scale, Gujarat’s Zone A is larger than the combined area of the Dutch waters designated for offshore wind. Although unrealistic, if the Zone was completely exploited, at a typical planting density of around 5 MW/km 2, it would provide at least 8 GW of capacity; equivalent to about 30% of Gujarat’s current generating capacity [21]. The Zone has a mean depth of ∼24 m, though the depth in the northern regions are closer to 15 m. NREL predicted [22], using WRF modelling, that the annual average wind speed at the LIDAR location at a height of 112 m would be between 8.1 and 9.0 m/s. FOWIND has estimated the annual average, 120 m wind speeds at the LIDAR location to be around 7 m/s. Fig 11 also summarises the advantages and disadvantages of offshore wind development in Gujarat in comparison to Tamil Nadu’s waters. In short, the infrastructure in Gujarat is currently far more capable and suited than for Tamil Nadu; however, the annual average wind speeds are lower and could be close to the limits of economic viability.

Fig 11: The boundaries of Gujarat’s Zone A, as proposed by FOWIND, with the locations of the nearest port for construction and O&M as well as FOWIND’s LIDAR

Case study 2: the Tamil Nadu project

MNRE is planning to fund an LIDAR and platform for Tamil Nadu’s Zone A which could be installed in early 2017. Fig 12 shows the boundaries of Tamil Nadu’s Zone A, as proposed by the FOWIND project, alongside the planned location of MNRE’s LIDAR measurement platform and the closest construction port. FOWIND’s predicted annual average wind speed for this Zone is 8.2 m/s and the estimated mean depth is ∼20 m.

Fig 12: The boundaries of Tamil Nadu’s Zone A, as proposed by FOWIND, with the locations of the nearest port for construction and O&M as well as the planned LIDAR location

Unlike Gujarat, Tamil Nadu’s infrastructure is less suited to support offshore wind development. In many of the attractive regions, with high wind speeds and shallow waters, there are no suitable construction ports nearby or electrical transmission grid to connect to. The national green corridor programme is reinforcing the grid and improving connectivity.

Tamil Nadu’s coastal, 100 m met mast at Dhanuskodi is an attractive source of long-term wind speed data which would provide an initial advantage over other sites in Tamil Nadu or Gujarat. It may well be the case that India’s first offshore, or nearshore, turbines could be close to the spit of land at Rameshwaram.

Go to the profile of Mark Leybourne

Mark Leybourne

Associate Director in Offshore Renewable Energy, ITPEnergised

I have 10 years' experience in offshore renewables and have worked on a wide range of offshore wind, wave, tidal stream and tidal range projects. I focus on developing and international markets, particularly those in Asia

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